Poll Average Details- NC Governor - 2024-11-05 18:30:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Josh Stein Mark K. Robinson Mike Ross M. Wayne Turner Walter Vincent "Vinny" Smith
AtlasIntel11/4X 1.00000   54.0000 - 0.6813 bias 37.5000 - 0.6043 bias      
Emerson College11/2X 0.96667   52.0000 - 1.1507 bias 40.0000 - 0.4363 bias      
Siena Research Institute11/2X 0.96667   56.0000 - 0.8995 bias 38.0000 - -0.2762 bias      
Morning Consult11/1X 0.95000   52.0000 - 3.2496 bias 36.0000 - -1.6378 bias      
ActiVote10/31X 0.93333   57.6000 - bias 42.4000 - bias      
East Carolina University - Center for Survey Reseach10/29X 0.90000   55.0000 - 2.2736 bias 40.0000 - -0.5399 bias 3.0000 - bias 1.0000 - bias 1.0000 - bias
SSRS10/28X 0.88333   53.0000 - 2.1629 bias 37.0000 - -1.7743 bias      
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News10/28X 0.88333   57.0000 - 1.3689 bias 41.0000 - -0.7750 bias      
Survey USA10/26X 0.85000   52.0000 - 0.6087 bias 37.0000 - 0.3321 bias      
Marist Institute10/22X 0.78333   55.0000 - 1.2095 bias 41.0000 - -0.7027 bias      
SoCal Research10/21X 0.76667   55.0000 - bias 40.0000 - bias      
Redfield & Wilton Strategies10/18X 0.71667   45.0000 - 5.3290 bias 37.0000 - -3.3508 bias 2.0000 - 0.2578 bias    
Elon University10/17X 0.70000   52.0000 - 1.4284 bias 31.0000 - 0.1034 bias      
Quinnipiac University10/14X 0.65000   54.0000 - 1.4883 bias 42.0000 - -0.4574 bias      
Cygnal (R)10/14X 0.65000   49.3000 - 0.2032 bias 35.8000 - 0.0406 bias 2.5000 - 1.6701 bias 0.8000 - 0.2037 bias 0.3000 - bias
High Point University9/29X 0.40000   51.0000 - -0.0133 bias 34.0000 - -1.6580 bias      
Benenson Strategy Group (D)/GS Strategy Group (R)9/25X 0.33333   59.0000 - bias 35.0000 - bias      
Victory Insights9/18X 0.21667   47.0000 - bias 42.0000 - bias      
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research9/17X 0.20000   52.0000 - -0.7836 bias 42.0000 - 1.4212 bias      
Florida Atlantic University9/6X 0.01667   50.0000 - 2.7986 bias 39.0000 - -1.2483 bias      
TOTAL 52.065676 38.848367 1.980005 0.830706 0.706452