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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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Ignore the Polls
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| Contributor | Mr. Politics |
| Last Edited | Mr. Politics Oct 14, 2024 11:15am |
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| Category | Commentary |
| Author | Ezra Klein |
| News Date | Monday, October 14, 2024 04:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Here’s a bit of advice to help maintain your sanity over the next few weeks until Election Day: Just ignore the polls. Unless you’re a campaign professional or a gambler, you’re probably looking at them for the same reason the rest of us are: to know who’ll win. Or at least to feel like you know who’ll win. But they just can’t tell you that.
You could imagine a world in which these errors are random and cancel one another out. Perhaps Donald Trump’s support is undercounted by three points in Michigan but overcounted by three points in Wisconsin. But errors often systematically favor one candidate or the other. In both 2016 and 2020, for instance, state-level polls tended to undercount Trump supporters. The polls overestimated Hillary Clinton’s margin by three points in 2016 and Joe Biden’s margin by 4.3 points in 2020. |
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