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The Pollster Who Predicted a Red Wave Explains Himself
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PollingFirm
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| Contributor | RP |
| Last Edited | RP Nov 17, 2022 02:44pm |
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| Category | Amusing |
| Author | Benjamin Hart |
| News Date | Thursday, November 17, 2022 11:00:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | In 2016 and 2020, Trafalgar Group did what many more other pollsters could not: come close to accurately portraying America’s support for Donald Trump. In 2022, the company’s polls once again showed a picture of Republican strength, helping create a widespread impression that a “red wave” was about to crest. In the end, Trafalgar missed — by a lot. And several more mainstream pollsters, who had gotten things so wrong before, enjoyed a triumphantly accurate cycle.
Weeks before the midterms, I had spoken with Trafalgar’s CEO, Robert Cahaly, who predicted Republican victory, and said he wanted to be the “Elon Musk of polling.” I spoke with him again this week about what went wrong with his polling and where he goes from here. |
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