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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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"Already Voted" Leaning Heavily Republican in NM
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| Contributor | Jason |
| Last Edited | Jason Oct 28, 2010 07:29pm |
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| Category | General |
| News Date | Tuesday, October 19, 2010 01:00:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | In 2008, SurveyUSA provided some interesting data for polls of states that utilized early voting. Beginning in October, it broke its data down into "already voted" and "likely to vote." In an October 14 poll of the New Mexico Senate race between Tom Udall and Steve Pearce, SurveyUSA found that voters who had "already voted" broke for the Democratic Senate candidate 65 percent to 32 percent; among likely voters it was 57 percent to 41 percent for the Democrat.
The actual results were about halfway between the two -- Udall won 61 percent. This sounds like what you'd expect, until you take into account the fact that actual voters made up only 10 percent of the poll sample. In other words, either a large chunk of the "likely voters" who hadn't voted either changed their mind and voted for the Democrat, or they simply didn't vote. |
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