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Edge shrinks for Lungren [R-CA]
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Race
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| Contributor | Chronicler |
| Last Edited | Chronicler Mar 01, 2008 11:50am |
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| Category | Analysis |
| Media | Newspaper - Sacramento Bee |
| News Date | Saturday, March 1, 2008 05:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | By David Whitney
WASHINGTON – Republican voter registration in California is on the decline, but nowhere is the effect more pronounced than in the Sacramento region's 3rd Congressional District.
Incumbent Rep. Dan Lungren, R-Gold River, now has the slimmest registration edge of any Republican-held congressional district in the state.
According to district registration figures updated before the Feb. 5 primary election by the secretary of state's office, the Republican advantage over Democratic registration has slipped below five percentage points, 41.6 percent to 36.9 percent. Before the 2006 general election, the GOP margin was almost 6.6 points.
While Lungren's possible Democratic challenger, emergency room physician Bill Durston, is encouraged by the shift, one analyst said it will be difficult for him to overcome Lungren's incumbency.
Republican consultant Allan Hoffenblum, who publishes the respected California Target Book evaluating state races, said the district remains Republican territory and is unlikely to draw interest from national Democratic financing sources.
"The problem challengers have is that unless they are wealthy and can put lots of money into their race, people who are serious players just don't look at districts like this, particularly with Dan Lungren who is perceived as a very effective member of Congress," Hoffenblum said. |
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