Some random thoughts: 1. RFK might have drawn enough Democratic primary vote here and there to embarrass Biden, which is less likely now. 2. Would never-Trump Republicans vote for RFK rather than Biden? It seems like if they supported Biden in 2020 they would be likely to do so again. 3. One way for RFK to gain in the polls would be if either Trump or Biden have some health issues before the election. I have three friends who don't like Kamala Harris for various reasons - their order of preference is Biden-RFK-Harris-Trump. 4. Would young Democrats who want a Gen X candidate prefer RFK over Biden? 5. Maybe EPU or someone else can weigh in on whether people on the left would be likely to vote for RFK. 6. I can't imagine many Republicans abandoning Trump for a quixotic RFK candidacy.

2. Would never-Trump Republicans vote for RFK rather than Biden? It seems like if they supported Biden in 2020 they would be likely to do so again. 1. We have to remember that Jan 6 happened after the 2020 election. Some (unfortunately few) Trump voters were turned off by this and might vote for RFK instead of Biden. 2. Some people really do vote for who they want instead of against the person they really don't want. If Trump wins in 2024 it will because a significant chunk of people vote 3rd party. And the Biden age thing is a wedge here.

Great post. Great questions. My thoughts. 2. Would never-Trump Republicans vote for RFK rather than Biden? It seems like if they supported Biden in 2020 they would be likely to do so again. I see this as RFKs target market. Republicans who would either won't cast a vote for Trump and still show up to the polls for down ballot races. And he's probably a legitimate option for Democrats in the same boat. He'll pull X% of Ds and Rs not happy with their nominee. And X% of Indies not happy with either. 3. One way for RFK to gain in the polls would be if either Trump or Biden have some health issues before the election. I have three friends who don't like Kamala Harris for various reasons - their order of preference is Biden-RFK-Harris-Trump. Agree on both. I think Harris is less popular than both Trump and Biden. 4. Would young Democrats who want a Gen X candidate prefer RFK over Biden? I honestly don't think young Democrats would go for Kennedy even if they want someone younger. I mean 69 isn't a spring chicken. ITs not like he's a whole different gen than Trump or Biden. I think they are all technically baby boomers.

The Left doesn't support RFK in the Slightest. But there is a group of people who call themselves "LEFT" that "gave coverage" for RFK Jr. I airquote both terms because they were not Leftists and they were doing everything but fellating RFK Jr the whole time. There is this wierd section on Twitter now of people who claim to be left but they almost exclusively run cover for the Right and shit on The Left and Democrats. And I don't even mean critiquing Joe Biden or Centrist Dems, these are people who claim that AOC is now no different than Joe Biden and that MTG is "Outflanking them from the Left on Ukraine" because they do not understand Foreign Policy differences between Anti-Imperialism vs Isolationism. This Bid is not affecting Biden in the slightest because NOBODY who supported RFK Jr planned on supporting Joe Biden. The same goes for people backing Cornel West or any other candidate, most people who back Indy/3rd Party especially are dissatisfied with all their options. This entire bid was just an Astroturf from the Right hoping that literally anyone could give Biden an embarrassment in the Primary and if I had to guess this is simply RFK Jr distancing himself from the Dems to open the door to being Trumps running mate to appeal to the Qanon base of the GOP

IDK why that's the segment u quoted when it really isn't related to the point ur making, in fact it kinda adds to mine. The only thing that united RFK Jr "Voters" regardless of ideology was they hated Biden and were never going to support him. His "Support" thus far in the polls has literally been name recognition and showing dissatisfaction with Biden. Support that would not last as RFK Jr makes more of his agenda known. Take a look at the big names supporting RFK Jr: Catherine Austin Fitts (Republican), David Sacks (Republican), Rob Schneider (Republican). Clearly he only can attract Right-Wingers to actually support him

And there ARE anti-vaxers on the left. I know some of them. Yeah. And they already have a candidate, Marianne Williamson

Trying to figure who RFK Jr. would pick as a running mate. He's gotta pick an R right?

I appreciate what has been posted here. As I mentioned, I know three people who plan to vote for Biden unless his health deteriorates, in which case they are looking at RFK as a way to keep Harris out (two of them are also anti-vaxers). Given the pool of people RFK would approach for funding in order to run an independent candidacy, and who he would be likely to appoint to offices if elected to keep that base satisfied, I can't imagine voting for him.

RFK Jr desperately trying to court the Pedophile Vote. Jokes on him: Trump has that base under lock and key https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1732208444034175395

An Indy Presidential Run by RFK Jr. will? Help Biden more. Most Biden supporters are not leaving Biden and risking it on a 3rd party candidate, especially if the nominee is Trump. Besides, the vaccine position of RFK Jr. is enough to give most of them the shivers. By contrast, there is a lot of Trump supporters who do like RFK Jr. because of the vaccine stuff. That could make it a bit easy for Biden in swing states, and I could even see Ohio becoming more reachable for the Democrats again if RFK Jr. gains steam.

RFK Jr is going to be doing Karaoke to get on the ballot in California. He has chosen to do the event in the same place his dad died https://twitter.com/JimJarmuschHair/status/1765440907871158638

https://twitter.com/KevinSpacey/status/1787511374429442455

Who next? R. Kelly?

Looks like I was right RFK Jr desperately trying to court the Pedophile Vote. Jokes on him: Trump has that base under lock and key

...and now RFK Jr. says there's a dead worm in his brain. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/rfk-jr-brain-worm-1235017026/

I wonder if RFK can wrest the Epstein supporters away from Trump?

...and now RFK Jr. says there's a dead worm in his brain. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/rfk-jr-brain-worm-1235017026/ AND mercury poisoning. Really, it explains a lot.

I have cognitive problems, clearly. I have short-term memory loss, and I have longer-term memory loss that affects me. - Robert F Kennedy Jr. At least he has something in common with Mezcal.

RFK Jr. is planning to drop out of the 2024 presidential race and endorse Trump. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rfk-jr-is-planning-to-drop-out-of-the-2024-presidential-race-and-endorse-trump/ar-AA1pceYx?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=975ba142a73447029e7551181407d0fd&ei=45

The Republican Plant Backs the Republican? Color me shocked.....

Won't help Trump, Harris will still win.

I'll believe Harris can win once she's tested at all and is able to maintain these scripted honeymoon numbers. I'm not sure how many left folks were still in Kennedy's camp. The roughly half that were there for broad-based conspiratorial reasons likely won't have an issue going to Trump, while the other half that were wanting an outsider alternative should find Chase Oliver with relative ease. The LP, for all the idiots and yes men it has collected and put in key leadership positions over the past 3 years, maintains its streak of bronze medals.

The entire RFK Jr thing was a shitshow since day one. The plan was clearly supposed to be that he was trying to siphon Dems, have a massive Demexit then eventually hold a press confrence to get those disaffected Dems to go Trump, BUT NOBODY WHO WAS GOING TO BACK BIDEN OR HARRIS WAS GOING TO VOTE RFK JR. And it was obvious as the only people who gave him serious looks were people who were quite literally on the record as saying they will never back Democrats; particularly podcasters online who were very obviously voting for him on the Vaccine issue but pretend its not that. Trump and the GOP is too fucking braindead to notice that because to them; everyone who is not a Republican (plus some who are) is this FAR LEFT RADICAL CULTURAL MARXIST, remember Trump literally tried to smear him as "the most radical left candidate in the race". Trying to entice people away to vote for a guy who is not even in the top 10 most radical Left Candidates rn. It perplexes me that there are apparently "KENNEDY VOTERS" out there, but I have always thought it was guys and guals and nonbinary pals who just didn't know too much about him and when push came to shove, they'd all go somewhere else.

If the polls are a statistical tie or slight Harris edge by November then I will assume Trump will win. He's outperformed his polling average twice now and I'm not convinced pollsters have cracked the code on the third try. I also anticipate Harris will probably have historically bad numbers among working class whites. "Scranton Joe" was enough of a thing to matter in the Rust Belt. While Harris's path to victory may still involve historic support among women, black voters, and suburbanites, that only helps her with the pipe dream of North Carolina and hanging on to Georgia for dear life. It's a path to be sure, but a very unsafe and untested one. Moreover, Harris is benefiting from the perception of being Generic Democrat. The more specific she gets, the less generic and more divisive she becomes.