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USER DETAILS
Screen NameRBH   
NameBrandon
LocationIndependence, ,
Email
BirthdayNovember 11, 1985
AffiliationDemocratic
First LoginNovember 29, 2006 08:40pm
Last LoginApril 27, 2024 03:04pm
Predictions Points: 5212.2285
Predictions: 2571/3032 (84.80%)
Points Per: 5212.2285/3032 (1.72)
Emote Messages 1,214
DISCUSSION
 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
May 13, 2024 09:58pm
added the new legislative district map, which went reasonably quick since it was just 13 of 49 districts changing and I could copy and paste district lines twice after getting it in for the Senate map

well, quick aside from having to tell it which 49 House districts to attach and not attach while creating the two House maps
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
May 10, 2024 09:21pm
Just San Francisco things
Candidate

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
May 08, 2024 01:03pm
amused at how this district includes the water around some islands but not those actual islands
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
May 05, 2024 12:15am
nice to a see a former Congressman (for a few months) back on the scene
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 28, 2024 04:05pm
pretty sure it was 40% for everything this year, but there have been some situations where a multi-county legislative race would have a higher threshold depending on one county
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 25, 2024 04:52pm
no, not that Tom Izzo
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 25, 2024 01:16pm
the result of James/Marlinga really brought out some candidates who probably think "I could have beaten John James in 2022 if only I had run"
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 24, 2024 02:13pm
A short list of things that are your friend on here: Copy and Paste. The Tab button.

As for the election.. wonder how much of the expectations are different for a Congress member representing Pittsburgh (the 26th largest media market) as opposed to just having a larger market and having more expectations put upon you.

That might work better as a theory for Minneapolis (the 15th market) than for St. Louis (the 24th market) since STL is barely larger than Pittsburgh and Bush has had to deal with tougher primaries than Lee. Unless St. Louis perceives itself to be larger than Pittsburgh, which is a thing in baseball.
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 17, 2024 01:15pm
not sure how much this would speed things up for you in Maine compared to archive.org pages of the results that used to be on the Maine page but this page is really good for having pre-1994 Maine results: [Link]
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 12, 2024 06:18pm
because of an increase in voters who may not necessarily be paying much attention to downballot races that are voting more off of names who may be more inclined to vote for women for an office like board of education.. it's very much a theory that probably can't be proven without trying to read voters minds

so it's not like the "Cook County voters voting for Irish surnames for low name ID spots" theory

this election had 34% of registered voters voting, compared to a race 2 years ago where the turnout for a school board race was 14%. 34% is pretty high for an April municipal election around here

on the other hand, the school board candidates made up most of the signage in yards so it's not like the candidates were complete unknowns until people voted
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 12, 2024 04:20pm
yeah, transparency in school board decisions was a topic in this election

the 7th place candidate wasn't on either squad, but I think he got the whole "being banned from school property" thing cleared up because they dropped the charges over speaking out of turn at a school board meeting
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 11, 2024 01:21pm
a Republican primary where two of the candidates were statewide Independent candidates in 2022 (Becker and Mund)
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 09, 2024 03:51pm
part 1 of putting 1990s Texas House districts on here: putting the districts and trying to figure out which ones to set to 1993-1995, 1993-1997, 1993-1999, or 1993-2003. Fortunately the bills they had to pass to change district lines (both the ones they changed willingly and the ones that were changed by courts) list which districts were changed.

Part 2 involved figuring out that they didn't change the Dallas/Houston districts until the map used in 1996 and that those wild looking districts lasted 2 cycles

Part 3 involved emailing ARP because the 1998 map wasn't extracting from a Zip file (they quickly fixed it so all thanks to them on that)

So the 1992 and 1994 maps are in, and then it's about putting in the districts that changed in 1996/98 to actually have legislative maps from Texas so you can set the date back and look at a mostly blue Texas.
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 07, 2024 04:01pm
I did find 1990s Texas shapefiles for the state house/senate on the American Redistricting Project website (thearp.org) and I added the TX State Senate districts.

The state house districts might be a little more of a challenge since it's 4 maps for 5 cycles, 150 districts, and figuring out which ones were the same for multiple maps.
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 06, 2024 05:12pm
amazing career path for Ashby from "guy who ran a Republican primary challenge to George W. Bush" to "appointed city counciloor" to "lost re-election to a Libertarian"
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 06, 2024 02:33pm
the Johnson vote might split and let a Libertarian though
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 05, 2024 02:52pm
fixed it (somehow the NH 1824-1827 county map was connected to Massachusetts counties instead of NH counties)
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
x2
April 03, 2024 06:16pm
found a reference to "Caleb W. Allis" running for Comptroller in 1879 and changed it over
Candidate

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 02, 2024 06:48pm
why yes, you can see the ski resort counties in this map
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 31, 2024 04:27pm
he has the hair of someone who writes science fiction which is really about the evils of abortion
Candidate

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
x2
March 29, 2024 07:32pm
(to help a candidate not in the primary for the full term)
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 24, 2024 12:48am
I read one tweet claiming several candidates accidentally filed for this office
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 21, 2024 03:41pm
it was a good move for us to keep an eye on Spring Valley politics for many years
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 18, 2024 02:11pm
ctrl+shift+R on Chrome is your friend sometimes
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 15, 2024 07:31pm
there were contested county primaries in Marengo that were blowouts (Circuit Clerk candidate wins 72-28, County Commission candidate wins 63-15-14), so it's probably not non-Dems crossing over to vote in a Dem primary

almost 600 voters voted in a Dem Circuit Clerk primary in Marengo who didn't vote for President

that scenario is probably *some* of the situation with RGV counties in Texas, but those counties have always had active Dem primaries for county offices and the percentages weren't outliers then
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