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  La Fayette
USER DETAILS
Screen NameLa Fayette   
NameBernhard
Location, ,
Email
BirthdayMarch 13, 1989
AffiliationDemocratic
First LoginMarch 26, 2011 04:54am
Last LoginMay 28, 2022 08:21am
Predictions Points: 601.0075
Predictions: 790/908 (87.00%)
Points Per: 601.0075/908 (0.66)
Messages Posted 57
DISCUSSION
 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 13, 2022 05:52pm
In this circonscription incumbent deputy Constance Le Grip has switched from Les Républicains to En Marche! and was facing a strong challenge by opposing centrist candidates on the one hand and her former party's candidate on the other hand. Now facing the NUPES for the second round she seems poised for an easy reelection. Marie-Caroline Le Pen ran as the RN candidate but couldn't break the 10% hurdle and ended behind the Reconquête candidate.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 13, 2022 05:44pm
Former member of Les Républicains, Aurore Bergé has risen to one of the most famous deputies of the République en Marche since her election, five years ago, against former presidential candidate Jean-Frédéric Poisson. She is expected to win easily a second term.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 13, 2022 05:38pm
Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a long time incumbent of this circonscription, had been said to face a serious challenge from one of LFI's mediatic leader Raquel Garrido. He has come only in second place but can hope to pick up supporters from En Marche voters in the second round, because of his centrist position.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 13, 2022 05:32pm
Clemence Guetté was one of the greatest LFI hope to win a seat over En Marche! She has directed the writing of Mélenchon's Programme for many years. She has managed to come ahead of incumbent deputy Jean-François Mbaye, who will face an uphill battle in the second round.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 13, 2022 05:26pm
One of the few Far right elected member of parliament, Emmanuelle Ménard, spouse of the Mayor of Béziers Robert Ménard, was a favorite for reelection. She will face the NUPES candidate on the second ballot.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 13, 2022 05:19pm
The results here were a setback for NUPES and the Parti Socialiste, whose initial incumbent candidate had been removed from the NUPES ticket after homophobic statements.
As a result, none of them will make it to the second ballot, leaving the RN and the MoDem candidate facing each other.
Francis Lalanne, one of Macron's most outspoken opponent, former Yellow Jacket leader and one of the most prominent opponent to Covid 19 vaccines, has earned only 2% of the votes.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 13, 2022 05:14pm
The results of this circonscription are a setback for En Marche! since Emmanuelle Wargon had been deputy Minister for Housing in Jean Castex's Government. The incumbent Les Républicains candidate will face the NUPES candidate on the second ballot.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 13, 2022 05:09pm
The former Minister of Sports Roxana Mărăcineanu was said to have a complicated battle to lead in this circonscription. She has called upon a "Republican Front" against her NUPES opponent for the second ballot, using the same catchphrase ordinarily used against RN or Far-right candidates.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 13, 2022 05:05pm
In one of LFI's stronghold, Mathilde Panot (NUPES), who has presided the LFI group at the National Assembly after Mélenchon's retirement, was the favourite of the race.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 13, 2022 05:01pm
This circonscription is one of the RN biggest target, which they actually believe to have a chance of winning. Despite no candidacy from Ensemble, Diard is still coming far behind the RN.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 13, 2022 04:56pm
Alexis Corbière (NUPES) was re-elected in the first round, one of the 5 MPs to do so.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 13, 2022 03:08pm
The most likely it that they'll abstain, a minority will vote blank or Ensemble, the RN vote is the least likely.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 12, 2022 05:19pm
Former minister Sylvia Pinel, who refused to enter the NUPES coalition, has been defeated in her circonscription, leaving RN and En Marche! facing each other.

Alexis Corbière, one of Mélenchon's strongest advisor, is elected on the first ballot.

The head of the Communist at the National Assembly, André Chassaigne, should have no trouble in his reelection campaign.

Jean Lassalle's brother, Julien Lassalle, who wanted to replace him in the 4th circonscription of Pyrénées Atlantiques has been defeated.

Marc Fesneau, Minister and member of the MoDem, is well ahead for reelection. Amélie de Montchâlin, on the other hand, seems to be facing more trouble in the Essonne.
Event

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 12, 2022 05:02pm
The incumbent Eric Ciotti is facing a strong challenge from the candidate from En Marche! Graig Monetti, who is directly supported by the mayor of the city of Nice and former member of Les Républicains Christian Estrosi.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 12, 2022 04:58pm
Aurélien Pradié is the second most important member of Les Républicains after Christian Jacob.
However, the attention here was focused on the rivalry between a NUPES candidate and her challenger, supported by the President of region Carole Delga herself. The NUPES made it to the second round, but Aurélien Pradié is the favorite.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 12, 2022 04:51pm
He was Zemmour's only elected official at the National Assembly and one of his best hope for a seat. Peltier had to face a strong challenge, with a candidacy from his former party LR, and a candidacy from the rival far-right party RN. Les Républicains couldn't take the seat back, but Peltier has lost it.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 12, 2022 04:45pm
Narrowly elected five years ago, Adrien Quatannens has risen to one of the most prominent figures of La France Insoumise since then, and is seen as one of the possible heirs of Mélenchon. The question here was not if he would be re-elected, but how strong he would fare.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 12, 2022 04:41pm
This race was closely followed because of the candidacy of Damien Rieu, one of Reconquête's greatest hope to earn a seat at the National Assembly. He won't make it to the second round.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 12, 2022 04:22pm
In this race, the RN hopes to take a seat at the National Assembly. Mohamed Laqhila, narrowly elected five years ago, was facing a tough challenge from the RN.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 12, 2022 04:17pm
So far no really big surprises: it is as if each party was holding its strongholds, and in the case of party switch, most voters would vote for the incumbent (Eric Woerth, Damien Abad).

Prime minister Elisabeth Borne will have to face a run-off in her Calvados circonscription, but is ahead of NUPES.
Event

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 12, 2022 04:11pm
The candidacy of Jean-Michel Blanquer, former minister for Education, was closely watched in this circonscription held by Les Républicains. Neither of them will make it to the second ballot.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 12, 2022 04:07pm
The race was watched because of Philippot, whose candidacy was the best shot for "Les Patriotes". He won't make it to the second ballot.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 12, 2022 03:35pm
Eric Woerth's circonscription got a lot of attention due to his switch to En Marche! during the presidential campaign; he was facing a candidate from Les Républicains and the united left, and a centrist against him.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 12, 2022 03:23pm
This seat is one of those which were targeted by the National Rally to improve his number of representatives in the National Assembly, based on Marine Le Pen's good results. Bricout benefited from the support of all other parties of the left, like all NUPES candidates.
Race

 
D:8172La Fayette ( 601.01 points)June 12, 2022 03:19pm
It was one of the races which got a lot of attention: Damien Abad, former prominent figure of Les Républicains, has switched to Emmanuel Macron and has become a member of Borne's governement and therofore facing a candidacy from his former party Les Républicains. He was also accused of rape and sexual harrasment, but it doesn't seem to have influenced the voters.
Race

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