Home About Chat Users Issues Party Candidates Polling Firms Media News Polls Calendar Key Races United States President Senate House Governors International

New User Account
"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource." 
Email: Password:

  MI US President - D Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Michigan > President
Parent RaceUS President - D Primaries
OfficePresident
HonorificPresident - Abbr: President
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline November 14, 2023 - 04:00pm Central
Polls Open February 27, 2024 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close February 27, 2024 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start January 20, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End January 20, 2029 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedNCdem April 13, 2024 12:43pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/03/2020
NameJoe Biden Votes2,804,040 (50.62%)
Term01/20/2021 - 01/20/2025 Margin154,188 (+2.78%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceMI US President 11/05/2024
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
04/25/2023 02/27/2024
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Joe Biden ------8
Leaning Call: Joe Biden (100.00%)
Weighted Call: Joe Biden (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

07/11/2023 02/24/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) President Joe Biden Uncommitted Marianne Williamson Rep. Dean Phillips (W) Write-In (W) Cenk Uygur  
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 625,221 (81.14%) 101,623 (13.19%) 22,865 (2.97%) 20,684 (2.68%) 152 (0.02%) 26 (0.00%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -523,598 (-67.95%) -602,356 (-78.17%) -604,537 (-78.45%) -625,069 (-81.12%) -625,195 (-81.13%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--  
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]  
Entry Date 04/24/2023 00/00/2024 00/00/2024 00/00/2024 11/14/2023 11/14/2023  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (2 from 2 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg74.50%-- 8.80%-- 0.00%-- 4.80%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Emerson College 
02/20/24-02/24/24
74.50% -- 8.80% -- 0.00% -- 4.80% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Mitchell Research & Communications 
07/11/23-07/13/23
75.00% -- 0.00% -- 4.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Gavin Newsom (D)
Jan 01, 2024
Gretchen Whitmer (D)
Jan 01, 2024
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (D)
Oct 09, 2023

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Feb 27, 2024 10:00am News Biden Faces ‘Uncommitted’ Vote in Michigan’s Primary. Here’s What to Watch.  Article BrentinCO 
Feb 26, 2024 02:25pm News 'Uncommitted' Michigan primary campaign blasts Whitmer for saying vote could boost Trump  Article BrentinCO 

DISCUSSION
 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
x2
Mon, February 26, 2024 07:36:01 PM UTC0:00
What would be the percentage of Uncommitted/Haley votes that would cause Republicans to call for Trump to step aside?

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Mon, February 26, 2024 07:52:55 PM UTC0:00
RP: What would be the percentage of Uncommitted/Haley votes that would cause Republicans to call for Trump to step aside?

Fair or not, the media/pundit class seem to be judging the dynamics of the Republican nomination and Biden renomination very differently. Biden's age, presentation, and weaknesses have Dems more worried then Trumps age, presentation, and weaknesses have Reps worried.

State polling and Bidens approvals are probably playing into to Dem panic as well. And to Trumps perceived strength.

But to answer your question directly, had Haley won South Carolina or if she makes over 40% of the vote in MI - maybe people would start questioning Trump's grip on the nomination more.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Mon, February 26, 2024 09:50:47 PM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: Fair or not, the media/pundit class seem to be judging the dynamics of the Republican nomination and Biden renomination very differently. Biden's age, presentation, and weaknesses have Dems more worried then Trumps age, presentation, and weaknesses have Reps worried.

The media is one thing, but the primary results would seem to indicate the opposite.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Wed, February 28, 2024 12:09:45 AM UTC0:00
saying the target is 10k uncommitted votes feels like a pretty solid bit of expectations management since uncommitted was getting way more than 10k in recent MI Dem primaries, even including 2012

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, February 28, 2024 03:54:18 AM UTC0:00
Hope Biden (And/or his handlers) use this as a wake up call.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Wed, February 28, 2024 05:17:02 AM UTC0:00
Meanwhile the whole concept of Michigan voters using the open primary to play games in opposing party primaries did not exactly occur tonight. At least not in enough numbers to keep Haley within 40 points.

Without knowing vital parts of the math, i'm just gonna guess that there'll be more DNC delegates for uncommitted thanks to the places where it's over 15% than RNC delegates for Haley despite Haley having close to 2x the percentage of the Uncommitted Dems

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Wed, February 28, 2024 05:32:06 AM UTC0:00
the difference between 13% and 15% statewide for uncommitteds is around the difference between 3 delegates from 3 CDs, and getting 9 delegates (3 CD, 4 At-Large, and 2 PLEOs)

also on looking at GreenPapers, Haley probably tops out at 4 delegates from Michigan, just barely ahead of the Uncommitted haul here.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Wed, February 28, 2024 03:21:58 PM UTC0:00
Biden lost 13% to Uncommitted in the MI primary while running for re-election.

Obama lost 11% to Uncommitted to the MI primary when running for re-election.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, February 28, 2024 04:46:36 PM UTC0:00