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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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MI US President - D Primary
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Parents |
> United States > Michigan > President
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Parent Race | US President - D Primaries |
Office | President |
Honorific | President - Abbr: President |
Type | Democratic Primary Election |
Filing Deadline | November 14, 2023 - 04:00pm Central |
Polls Open | February 27, 2024 - 06:00am Central |
Polls Close | February 27, 2024 - 07:00pm Central |
Term Start | January 20, 2025 - 12:00pm |
Term End | January 20, 2029 - 12:00pm |
Contributor | RP |
Last Modified | NCdem April 13, 2024 12:43pm |
Data Sources | [Link] |
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DISCUSSION |
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D:1 | RP ( 5506.7227 points)
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Mon, February 26, 2024 07:36:01 PM UTC0:00
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What would be the percentage of Uncommitted/Haley votes that would cause Republicans to call for Trump to step aside?
What would be the percentage of Uncommitted/Haley votes that would cause Republicans to call for Trump to step aside?
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Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Mon, February 26, 2024 07:52:55 PM UTC0:00
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What would be the percentage of Uncommitted/Haley votes that would cause Republicans to call for Trump to step aside?
Fair or not, the media/pundit class seem to be judging the dynamics of the Republican nomination and Biden renomination very differently. Biden's age, presentation, and weaknesses have Dems more worried then Trumps age, presentation, and weaknesses have Reps worried.
State polling and Bidens approvals are probably playing into to Dem panic as well. And to Trumps perceived strength.
But to answer your question directly, had Haley won South Carolina or if she makes over 40% of the vote in MI - maybe people would start questioning Trump's grip on the nomination more.
RP: What would be the percentage of Uncommitted/Haley votes that would cause Republicans to call for Trump to step aside?
Fair or not, the media/pundit class seem to be judging the dynamics of the Republican nomination and Biden renomination very differently. Biden's age, presentation, and weaknesses have Dems more worried then Trumps age, presentation, and weaknesses have Reps worried.
State polling and Bidens approvals are probably playing into to Dem panic as well. And to Trumps perceived strength.
But to answer your question directly, had Haley won South Carolina or if she makes over 40% of the vote in MI - maybe people would start questioning Trump's grip on the nomination more.
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
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Mon, February 26, 2024 09:50:47 PM UTC0:00
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Fair or not, the media/pundit class seem to be judging the dynamics of the Republican nomination and Biden renomination very differently. Biden's age, presentation, and weaknesses have Dems more worried then Trumps age, presentation, and weaknesses have Reps worried.
The media is one thing, but the primary results would seem to indicate the opposite.
BrentinCO: Fair or not, the media/pundit class seem to be judging the dynamics of the Republican nomination and Biden renomination very differently. Biden's age, presentation, and weaknesses have Dems more worried then Trumps age, presentation, and weaknesses have Reps worried.
The media is one thing, but the primary results would seem to indicate the opposite.
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D:1989 | RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
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Wed, February 28, 2024 12:09:45 AM UTC0:00
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saying the target is 10k uncommitted votes feels like a pretty solid bit of expectations management since uncommitted was getting way more than 10k in recent MI Dem primaries, even including 2012
saying the target is 10k uncommitted votes feels like a pretty solid bit of expectations management since uncommitted was getting way more than 10k in recent MI Dem primaries, even including 2012
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I:9951 | E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
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Wed, February 28, 2024 03:54:18 AM UTC0:00
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Hope Biden (And/or his handlers) use this as a wake up call.
Hope Biden (And/or his handlers) use this as a wake up call.
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D:1989 | RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
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Wed, February 28, 2024 05:17:02 AM UTC0:00
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Meanwhile the whole concept of Michigan voters using the open primary to play games in opposing party primaries did not exactly occur tonight. At least not in enough numbers to keep Haley within 40 points.
Without knowing vital parts of the math, i'm just gonna guess that there'll be more DNC delegates for uncommitted thanks to the places where it's over 15% than RNC delegates for Haley despite Haley having close to 2x the percentage of the Uncommitted Dems
Meanwhile the whole concept of Michigan voters using the open primary to play games in opposing party primaries did not exactly occur tonight. At least not in enough numbers to keep Haley within 40 points.
Without knowing vital parts of the math, i'm just gonna guess that there'll be more DNC delegates for uncommitted thanks to the places where it's over 15% than RNC delegates for Haley despite Haley having close to 2x the percentage of the Uncommitted Dems
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D:1989 | RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
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Wed, February 28, 2024 05:32:06 AM UTC0:00
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the difference between 13% and 15% statewide for uncommitteds is around the difference between 3 delegates from 3 CDs, and getting 9 delegates (3 CD, 4 At-Large, and 2 PLEOs)
also on looking at GreenPapers, Haley probably tops out at 4 delegates from Michigan, just barely ahead of the Uncommitted haul here.
the difference between 13% and 15% statewide for uncommitteds is around the difference between 3 delegates from 3 CDs, and getting 9 delegates (3 CD, 4 At-Large, and 2 PLEOs)
also on looking at GreenPapers, Haley probably tops out at 4 delegates from Michigan, just barely ahead of the Uncommitted haul here.
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D:1 | RP ( 5506.7227 points)
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Wed, February 28, 2024 03:21:58 PM UTC0:00
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Biden lost 13% to Uncommitted in the MI primary while running for re-election.
Obama lost 11% to Uncommitted to the MI primary when running for re-election.
Biden lost 13% to Uncommitted in the MI primary while running for re-election.
Obama lost 11% to Uncommitted to the MI primary when running for re-election.
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Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Wed, February 28, 2024 04:46:36 PM UTC0:00
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https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1762844630108790904
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