Poll Average Details- PA US President - 2024-11-05 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

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PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Jill Stein Chase Oliver Democratic Primary Winner Joe Biden Republican Primary Winner Donald J. TrumpCornel West
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research4/30X 1.00000     5.0000 - bias 3.0000 - 2.0766 bias 41.0000 - -0.6142 bias 49.0000 - 1.2782 bias  
Emerson College4/29X 0.98333   6.0000 - 0.7151 bias     45.0000 - 0.8084 bias 47.0000 - 0.6906 bias  
YouGov4/25X 0.91667         49.0000 - 1.4134 bias 50.0000 - 0.0288 bias  
Muhlenberg College4/25X 0.91667   18.0000 - -1.2818 bias     41.0000 - -0.6942 bias 44.0000 - 1.6290 bias  
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News4/16X 0.76667   8.0000 - 1.3894 bias     48.0000 - 1.0608 bias 48.0000 - -0.5021 bias  
Morning Consult4/15X 0.75000         46.0000 - 3.1429 bias 47.0000 - -1.6394 bias  
Franklin & Marshall College3/31X 0.50000   9.0000 - bias     48.0000 - 0.8112 bias 38.0000 - -0.8927 bias  
Susquehanna Polling & Research (SP&R)3/7X 0.10000         50.0000 - 1.4286 bias 45.0000 - -1.1849 bias  
TOTAL 10.244188 5.000000 0.92340042.90374644.463678 0.000000