Poll Average Details- MT At-Large - 2018-11-06 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Greg Gianforte Greg Gianforte	Kathleen Williams Jared Pettinato	Elinor Swanson	Doug Campbell
Change Research	11/4	X 1.00000		52.0000 - -1.2913 bias	44.0000 - 1.4957 bias	2.0000 - 1.5239 bias
Gravis Marketing	10/26	X 0.85000		48.0000 - 0.2608 bias	48.0000 - 1.1590 bias
University of Montana	10/18	X 0.71667		45.3000 - -2.7847 bias	45.8000 - 3.5815 bias	1.8000 - -0.7969 bias
Montana State University Billings	10/13	X 0.63333		44.0000 - -1.1286 bias	41.0000 - 0.9098 bias	3.0000 - 0.5258 bias
Montana State University Bozeman	10/6	X 0.51667		47.6000 - -2.3613 bias	40.1000 - 3.4950 bias	2.4000 - -0.1303 bias
Benenson Strategy Group (D)	9/16	X 0.18333		46.0000 - -1.4207 bias	45.0000 - 2.2156 bias
TOTAL				49.081770	42.236562	1.817974	0.000000