Poll Average Details- North Rhine-Westphalia State Parliament - Popular Vote - 2012-05-13 18:10:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Social Democratic Party	Christian Democratic Union	Alliance '90/The Greens	Pirate Party Germany	Free Democratic Party	The Left	National Democratic Party of Germany	Free Voters	Family Party of Germany	Human Environment Animal Protection Party	Ecological Democratic Party	Alliance for Innovation and Justice	The Party	AUF Party for Work, Environment and Family	Citizens Pro-Germany Movement
Infratest Dimap	5/3	X 1.00000		38.5000 - 3.6810 bias	30.0000 - -1.6675 bias	11.0000 - 1.4558 bias	7.5000 - -1.1792 bias	6.0000 - 0.4427 bias	4.0000 - 1.5998 bias
FGW	5/3	X 1.00000		38.0000 - 2.9633 bias	31.0000 - -0.2697 bias	11.0000 - 0.3875 bias	8.0000 - -0.0622 bias	6.0000 - -0.0470 bias	3.0000 - 0.5673 bias
YouGov	4/29	X 0.93333		36.0000 - -3.2149 bias	31.0000 - 4.6357 bias	11.0000 - -0.3670 bias	10.0000 - 2.1708 bias	5.0000 - -3.6136 bias	4.0000 - 1.4989 bias
Forsa	4/27	X 0.90000		37.0000 - 2.1378 bias	32.0000 - 3.1926 bias	10.0000 - 1.0173 bias	10.0000 - -0.9027 bias	5.0000 - -0.3258 bias	3.0000 - 0.2086 bias
Emnid	4/24	X 0.85000		38.0000 - -1.8248 bias	32.0000 - -0.4584 bias	10.0000 - 0.9787 bias	9.0000 - 1.1708 bias	5.0000 - -1.6063 bias	4.0000 - 1.1230 bias
INFO GmbH	4/14	X 0.68333		40.0000 - 8.3883 bias	29.0000 - 2.1828 bias	10.0000 - -1.3670 bias	11.0000 - 3.1708 bias	3.0000 - -5.6136 bias	3.0000 - 0.4989 bias
TOTAL				36.015775	29.699118	10.115382	8.546433	6.696558	2.577774	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000